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If gas prices are just holding steady and not increasing, and if incomes are rising, your gas bill is the same, and [consumer] demand can rebound. That's the most likely scenario here. - Steven Wieting Quotes

If gas prices are just holding steady and not increasing, and if incomes are rising, your gas bill is the same, and [consumer] demand can rebound. That's the most likely scenario here.

We're getting higher and higher oil prices each day and you'll continue to see a larger drag on the economy through the summer months. - Steven Wieting Quotes

We're getting higher and higher oil prices each day and you'll continue to see a larger drag on the economy through the summer months.

While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook. - Steven Wieting Quotes

While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.

Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.

We haven't had a single year of falling consumer spending since 1938. There's no boom or bust in consumer spending. - Steven Wieting Quotes

We haven't had a single year of falling consumer spending since 1938. There's no boom or bust in consumer spending.

Boom

The reaction to this data in the past would have been much more positive. These days only bad news is carrying weight. - Steven Wieting Quotes

The reaction to this data in the past would have been much more positive. These days only bad news is carrying weight.

News

September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact, - Steven Wieting Quotes

September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact,

Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read, ... It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read, ... It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market.

Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read. It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read. It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market.

This [gain in proprietors' income] is small-business job creation, we think, and it's more useful at this point in the business cycle than it would otherwise be, - Steven Wieting Quotes

This [gain in proprietors' income] is small-business job creation, we think, and it's more useful at this point in the business cycle than it would otherwise be,

Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.

I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker. - Steven Wieting Quotes

I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker.

I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker, - Steven Wieting Quotes

I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker,

I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker. At roughly $50, oil should be holding back GDP (gross domestic product) growth by a full percentage point in the year to come. Fortunately, we have more than a percentage point to give. - Steven Wieting Quotes

I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker. At roughly $50, oil should be holding back GDP (gross domestic product) growth by a full percentage point in the year to come. Fortunately, we have more than a percentage point to give.

We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent. - Steven Wieting Quotes

We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.

The fact is orders just hit a wall in June and July. - Steven Wieting Quotes

The fact is orders just hit a wall in June and July.

[By his lights it didn't make sense that stocks were unable to hold onto most of their gains Tuesday, finishing the day roughly flat after a jump early on.] The reaction to this data in the past would have been much more positive, ... These days only bad news is carrying weight. - Steven Wieting Quotes

[By his lights it didn't make sense that stocks were unable to hold onto most of their gains Tuesday, finishing the day roughly flat after a jump early on.] The reaction to this data in the past would have been much more positive, ... These days only bad news is carrying weight.

While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy. - Steven Wieting Quotes

While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.

While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns, ... We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy. - Steven Wieting Quotes

While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns, ... We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.

This [gain in proprietors' income] is small-business job creation, we think, and it's more useful at this point in the business cycle than it would otherwise be. - Steven Wieting Quotes

This [gain in proprietors' income] is small-business job creation, we think, and it's more useful at this point in the business cycle than it would otherwise be.

We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every $10 move (higher) in crude oil futures. - Steven Wieting Quotes

We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every $10 move (higher) in crude oil futures.

We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. - Steven Wieting Quotes

We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point.

There's a lot of month-to-month volatility in these numbers, ... You had a tremendous amount of widening in February and then a snap back in March. - Steven Wieting Quotes

There's a lot of month-to-month volatility in these numbers, ... You had a tremendous amount of widening in February and then a snap back in March.

The soft patch was highly overrated, - Steven Wieting Quotes

The soft patch was highly overrated,

There is no change in course, and markets have already priced in more action. - Steven Wieting Quotes

There is no change in course, and markets have already priced in more action.

I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic? - Steven Wieting Quotes

I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic?

Risk

We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May. - Steven Wieting Quotes

We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.

The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences. - Steven Wieting Quotes

The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences.

It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do. - Steven Wieting Quotes

It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.

Worry

It's more of a victory lap. Literally a month ago people were arguing that prices would not stop going up. Now, data we would have killed for two years ago is seen as the end of the world. But alarmists on both sides of this thing have been shown to be wrong. - Steven Wieting Quotes

It's more of a victory lap. Literally a month ago people were arguing that prices would not stop going up. Now, data we would have killed for two years ago is seen as the end of the world. But alarmists on both sides of this thing have been shown to be wrong.

If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend. - Steven Wieting Quotes

If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend.

Labor

Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports.

The fact that we can lower living costs at a time when output and income are recovering should be considered fantastic news. - Steven Wieting Quotes

The fact that we can lower living costs at a time when output and income are recovering should be considered fantastic news.

I think we can do better, - Steven Wieting Quotes

I think we can do better,

The consumer's role in this upturn is going to be the opposite of [his] role in the downturn. - Steven Wieting Quotes

The consumer's role in this upturn is going to be the opposite of [his] role in the downturn.

Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that.

What's most important is that we've got demand and supply moving ahead fast enough that we're absorbing and creating jobs month in and month out -- that's not something to lament. - Steven Wieting Quotes

What's most important is that we've got demand and supply moving ahead fast enough that we're absorbing and creating jobs month in and month out -- that's not something to lament.

Jobs

Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter.

It will be a long time until anybody thinks the economy is stretched and can't produce enough to match demand. We could be dealing with it for all of 2004, certainly. - Steven Wieting Quotes

It will be a long time until anybody thinks the economy is stretched and can't produce enough to match demand. We could be dealing with it for all of 2004, certainly.

If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do. - Steven Wieting Quotes

If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do.

There are several large drags, in a statistical sense. The underlying condition is that we're probably losing jobs. But the February and March data are not indicative of how bad it really is. - Steven Wieting Quotes

There are several large drags, in a statistical sense. The underlying condition is that we're probably losing jobs. But the February and March data are not indicative of how bad it really is.

Jobs

Freeing up less productive resources by accomplishing more with less is the entire basis for rising living standards. It shouldn't come as a surprise that stronger periods of economic growth have generally begun during periods of high unemployment, not low unemployment. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Freeing up less productive resources by accomplishing more with less is the entire basis for rising living standards. It shouldn't come as a surprise that stronger periods of economic growth have generally begun during periods of high unemployment, not low unemployment.

We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it. - Steven Wieting Quotes

We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it.

Friday's number is not going to make much of a difference for the outlook for the economy. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Friday's number is not going to make much of a difference for the outlook for the economy.

This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement, - Steven Wieting Quotes

This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,

Iraq will be the story until it isn't any more. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Iraq will be the story until it isn't any more.

Iraq

We're not expecting an entirely clean read for the durable goods report. The business confidence data began to bottom at the end of June and that's encouraging. We probably will see modest gains in consumer activity and eventually the business cycle will catch up to that. But so far, everything right now is pointing to frustrating moderate economic growth for the time being, - Steven Wieting Quotes

We're not expecting an entirely clean read for the durable goods report. The business confidence data began to bottom at the end of June and that's encouraging. We probably will see modest gains in consumer activity and eventually the business cycle will catch up to that. But so far, everything right now is pointing to frustrating moderate economic growth for the time being,

It takes a lot of confidence to buy cars and homes; people don't make that kind of decision on a whim. - Steven Wieting Quotes

It takes a lot of confidence to buy cars and homes; people don't make that kind of decision on a whim.

Consumption is growing, government outlays are growing and the third quarter will look very strong. But going forward, business spending is flat and decisions are being deferred. That can keep us weak for the near term -- neither contracting nor expanding. - Steven Wieting Quotes

Consumption is growing, government outlays are growing and the third quarter will look very strong. But going forward, business spending is flat and decisions are being deferred. That can keep us weak for the near term -- neither contracting nor expanding.

In some industries, there's no improvement and the economy is not going to help them. - Steven Wieting Quotes

In some industries, there's no improvement and the economy is not going to help them.

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